Contagion is all the rage now. The movie, I mean. For a movie that's almost a decade old, it's been in the news recently with the claims that it predicted the current pandemic. Nothing more engrossing than a conspiracy theory at any time. If it predicted, it means someone knew. If someone knew, it must mean that this is something someone created.
Really?
Here's the thing. Contagion, like Interstellar, employed experts. Now, when you employ experts, their expertise shows how? Good guess. By stating facts. What's the genius of it? The scriptwriter weaving it seamlessly into the story arc. Naturally, shit's got to get real. 😀 The surprise is Contagion was tremendously really in terms of the spread, in terms of R0, in terms of so many other things. The mortality rate was an exaggeration. I'm sure you are aware of it. The social machinery breaking down also is an exaggeration. Riots won't happen. I'm sure you are aware of it. But on further examination, it shouldn't be surprising. If you employ an expert and his expertise is full of holes, then he isn't an expert and you end up looking like a fool. Naturally, he will ensure that facts are used as facts.
So what gives?
The fact that this pandemic was predicted and thus preventable. And I don't mean the movie. As far back as in 2007, there was a white paper on the topic.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection
Boom.
Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the re-emergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.
Ergo, with some expert knowledge, armed with facts and using extrapolation, a lot of predictions in a lot of fields for the near-future is always possible. It ain't surprising. Now, as is the inherent nature of movies, it's got to exaggerate, as I said. And this means:
Facts+expertise+extrapolation+screenwriting=great movie.
Facts+expertise+extrapolation+book-writing=doomsday predictions.
Facts+expertise+extrapolation+social-media=facepalm.
To further my point, allow me to illustrate with further examples.
Outbreak, film, 1995 - Pandemic.
12 Monkeys, film, 1995 - Pandemic.
Virus, film, 1980 - Pandemic.
Clearly, doomsday predictions aren't new. If you go by this Wiki page, there's not going be any end to it anytime soon.
Since we're anyway on the topic, here's a good one - maps predicting the changed landscape of the future following the melting of icecaps. You don't even need to read the article. Just scroll the article and look at the maps. On second thoughts, don't bother. See for yourself.
My point being, fact-based predictions can be made just as easily as unscientific prophetic claims.
Juicy, these predictions always are. Why, though? Why does it pull us in so strongly, these type of predictions? From Knappily, which I would strongly recommend installing, a possible explanation is "at its heart, the concept of doomsday evokes an innate and ancient bias in most mammals," according to University of Minnesota neuroscientist Shmuel Lissek, who studies the fear system. Its how we're built, quite simply and plainly. Evolution resulted in organisms having a better-safe-than-sorry approach. You've certainly come across the term "fight-or-flight" response.
Again, from the same article: Why would anyone enjoy triggering this fearful response? Validation. Previous trauma. Removal of a sense of individual responsibility. Bottomline - it just works. Nostradamus was touted as the most accurate future-seeing God there was. They even claimed he predicted the 9/11 attacks. I honestly wonder if he predicted me writing this article.
But it is not all negative. Given how prolific WhatsApp is in everyday life, you would have come across Bill Gates TED talk where he "predicts" the same thing. In the off-hand possibility that you haven't seen that video, here it is. So, yes, he "talked" about the next pandemic. That was 5 years ago. In fifteen years from now, his talk will still be valid. There will still be the chance of a pandemic. And another 15 years hence. He will - yet again - be hailed as a visionary.Â
You can consider that as my prediction.